How the war in Ukraine threatens the real estate industry Var

How the war in Ukraine threatens the real estate industry Var

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To make tiles you need clay and gas. Part of this raw material traditionally comes from eastern Ukraine.

The conflict with Russia is causing both a shortage of almost all materials – which had already begun with the health crisis and the global disorganization it has caused – and a spike in the price of energy.

All this has an impact on the construction and restoration of homes.

This example is one that will seriously threaten the real estate industry in the coming months. Problems not hidden by the Provence Real Estate Observatory (OIP), which on Wednesday published its traditional barometer for Var.

Every six months, the OIP measures the temperature of new, old and social housing, but also the rental market and detached houses, based on, inter alia, data from industry professionals, such as BTP83, FNAIM83, etc.

The safe stone?

In addition to the conflict in Ukraine, there is a shortage of land, highlighted by the goal of zero artificial clean artificial soil (ZAN) by 2050, set by the law on climate and resilience. very expensive land, stricter credit terms. According to Pierre-Alexandre Pernot, President of OIP Var, “The risk is therefore that a whole more part of the population – young workers and low-income households – will be excluded from home ownership.”

Delivery times and offers. In 2021, the stone remained a reliable and long-term investment, according to FNAIM. The health crisis, which caused a real estate boom, has shown that it remains a safe haven in the eyes of investors and households, compared to banking investments. But this should not stop buyers from wondering about price increases, delivery times and especially the possible price adjustment that may put them in a difficult position. In fact, prices can vary between signing a contract and completing work, especially in the current situation. Therefore, pay attention to the price review clause that authorizes a manufacturer – who can not at a loss – to update the amount of a contract. It is also necessary to take into account delivery times that may be delayed due to lack of materials.

New houses. By 2021, this market had returned to results almost identical to those before the crisis. A result that should be understood according to Fabien Piersanti, president of Pôle Habitat FFB, which brings together players in the field of construction and housing. “To date, sales of single-family homes that will be built in diffuse stabilization have stabilized in the area at a low of about 5,200 per year, which is less than half the number of homes we built there. 15 years.” In Var, it estimates that housing construction fell by 7% between 2019 and 2021, while total in France increased by 13% over the same period. Overpriced land is one explanation for the drop in sales, he says.

Energy Efficiency Diagnosis (EPD). Construction activity for home improvement and maintenance fell by 2.5% between 2019 and 2021. Fortunately for the construction industry, energy renovation with DPE brings activity. The national average of houses to be renovated is 17%, in Var it is 7%, representing 30,000 housing units. A bad DPE can lead to a 11 to 15% discount on the property. Especially since last July, it is no longer just indicative but executable. In other words, both the buyer and the tenant can discuss the price depending on the outcome of the diagnosis. A timetable for the phasing out of thermal filters has been put in place. From 25 August 2022, rent increases for real estate with a rating of F and G are no longer allowed.

From 1 January 2023, it will no longer be possible to rent accommodation with energy consumption exceeding 450 kWh per m² per year. These are accommodations rated G in DPE. Regulations are becoming stricter by 2030 and risk creating a shortage of rental housing, either in the private sector or in public housing, according to Unis-Paca, which believes the deadlines are too short to complete the project.

So many problems facing the world of real estate, which wants the creation of a housing ministry.

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